Target Met in Infosys(20% profit)

I am happy to announce that my target on Infosys met today on trading hours.I gave a fresh buy call on Infosys at  Rs.2500 just before companies Q3 results.For details of buy recommendation click here.http://keralatraders.blogspot.in/2013/01/infosys-q3-beats-estimates-net-profit.html
I am again posting my ten reasons for Infosys share buy

1. Infosys net profit at Rs.s.2,369 crore in the December quarter was flat against Rs.s.2,370 crore in the September quarter, but much better than the average estimate of Rs. 2,100 crore in a poll of 16 analysts, according to Thomson Reuters.
2. Infosys said revenue rose 12 per cent in October-December to Rs.s.10,424 crore from Rs.s.9,300 crore a year earlier. That compares with analyst estimates of Rs.s.9,680 crore.
3. Dollar revenues for the December quarter stood at $1.91 billion against $1.79 billion in the previous quarter and better than estimates of $1.87 billion.
4. The biggest positive for the stock was the upward revision announced in the full year dollar sales forecast. Infosys said FY13 revenue forecast is seen at $7.45 billion, which is better than $7.34 billion projected by the management earlier. The new guidance implies 6.5 per cent growth year-on-year and includes Lodestone's revenues.
5. Earnings per share for the full fiscal are likely to be Rs.s.162.80, a 10.4 per cent jump over the year ago period.
6. Infosys maintained margins despite higher operating costs. EBIT or operating margins declined to 25.69 per cent against 26.3 per cent in the September quarter, but better than estimates of 25.5 per cent. Margins declined on account of wage hikes.
7. Infosys managed to post 2 per cent sequential growth in volumes though the biggest surprise was the pick-up in pricing, which rose 3.7 per cent. Utilization rate rose to 70.1 per cent against 69.60 per cent.
8. Management sounded optimistic: S. D. Shibulal, CEO and managing director of Infosys said the company has done well in this quarter despite an uncertain environment. "We continue to gain confidence from a strong pipeline of large deals. However, the broader economic environment remains difficult. Even so, we remain cautiously optimistic about the January-March quarter", he added.
9. Analysts said the worst might be over for Infosys. "This is a very credible performance. Infosys has exceeded our estimates at the bottom line by 4-5 per cent and they have done this after 4-5 quarter... so, kudos to the management. The combine of a beat on actual Q3 numbers and upbeat guidance should reflect in our and most brokerage estimates going upwards," Saurabh Mukherjee of Ambit told NDTV Profit.
10. Brokers were upbeat: Kotak said Infosys had reported an excellent quarter with organic growth beating expectations. Nomura said Q3 revenues were very impressive and organic growth guidance not being cut is positive. Citi said Infosys has showed a substantial beat in Q3.

Now on 7 march Infosys is trading at Rs.3002 levels which means 20% upside form my buy call on January 10th report.Now I wish to book profit in Infoys at this levels.

Holdings in Trading Portfolio

Here is my latest portfolio holdings and snapshot of my trading portfolio.I initially started portfolio with Rs.100000 on Aug 2012 and now fund size is around 1.2 lakh.Now I am holding aprox 61000 worth stocks and 61484 as cash surplus in portfolio.I have generated 20% returns so far since

SCRIP	BUY RATE	QTY	SECTOR	CMP	GAIN/LOSSS	% CHANGE	VALUE
STRIDES ARCO	800	6	PHARMA	905	630	35	6480
BAJAJ FINSERV	890	6	FINANCIAL SERV	815	-450	2	5508
JAI CORP	85	117	REALTY	60	-2925	-29	9945
DCB	50	200	BANKING	43	-1400	-14	8600
RELCAPITAL	400	25	NBFC	380	-500	-5	9500
CAIRN	290	35	OIL	300	350	3.5	10500
TATA GLOBAL	130	80	FMCG	133	240	2.3	10640
						TOTAL VALUE	61173
						BAL AMOUNT	61484

Why NHPC tanked 25%?

NHPC stock fell as much as 25.8% on Monday before recovering marginally. This followed a 10.5% decline on Friday and prompted the management to issue a clarification. “As far as the fundamentals of the company, there is no change which affects the major price movement,” the company said in a stock exchange filing. “In our opinion, there is no issue in the Finance Bill, which has any adverse effect on (the) hydro sector.”

Dealers said the fall in the stock was due to some margin calls being triggered, which had a domino effect. While the budget may not have had an impact, the company’s fundamentals remain weak, though that doesn’t warrant such a steep decline in its stock price.

After listing at Rs.36 a share in 2009, NHPC exceeded that price only once—on 6 January 2010. The main problem dogging the company has been a delay in executing projects. It added no capacity at all in FY10, just 120 megawatts (MW) in FY11 and none at all in FY12. If one went by the projections given in its red herring prospectus, NHPC should have added 3,941MW of capacity by now.

So far this fiscal year, the company has added 275MW of capacity. An investor presentation on its website said it expects to add another 417MW of capacity in this fiscal year and another 680 MW in the next.

However, after that, expect another lull in commissioning for 18 months before capacity additions start in FY17. NHPC has so far spent Rs.19,000 crore on these projects which are at varying levels of completion.Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd said in a report that, “20% book (is) invested in projects that are stuck or facing problems.” In other words, it will take a long time for these projects to be added to NHPC’s gross block and start earning.

The recent capacity additions have also meant that NHPC has reported a rise in generation. But then it has also been facing other problems. Capital costs for the company have increased and the tariff for new projects such as Chutak in Jammu and Kashmir is estimated at Rs.8 per unit, far higher than the average electricity rates around the country.

NHPC is also seeing receivables piling up, another threat to earnings. According to Emkay, total receivables at the end of December 2012 stand at Rs.1,999 crore, about one-third of its FY12 sales. Of this, receivables which are more than 60 days old constitute Rs.1,258 crore.

While these limit the upside for the stock, note that NHPC now trades at 0.77 times estimated book value for FY14, much below the consensus 1.1 times call by brokerages.

So I would like to Given fresh buy call on NHPC at this fair valuation.But kindly note that this stock is not suitable for short term traders.Only longterm investors with 2 year holding period can accumulate stock

                   I express my sincere thanks to Livemint website for this article

Adding Tata Global Beverages and Cairn India in Trading Portfolio

After a 300 points correction in Nifty last month there are lots of buying opportunity in the market as of now.But the important question is the stock selection. Obviously stock selection is very difficult task in this current market scenario.So I am adding low beta and fundamentally strong stocks at this point of time.I also request my clients and followers to add only quality fundamentally strong stock and least debt companies only in portfolio.Dont buy stocks who have large debt and whose promoters stakes are pledged.

Now I would like to add two fundamentally strong companies namely Tata Global Beverages and Cairn India in my trading portfolio. Cairn India is Indias second largest refining company after Reliance industry.Recently Vedanta group bought acquired Cairn India.Now Cairn India is trading at Rs.290.Its 52 week low is at 285.So I am buying 35 shares at 290(35*290=10150) levels for a target of 330.

Secondly I would like to buy Tata Global at Rs.130 levels for a target of 160 plus.I am buying 80 shares of TGBL for Rs.10400 in trading portfolio.

Kindly note that I choosen these stocks so that I can hold these companies for another six month minimum
My cash reserve in trading portfolio is reduced from Rs.82034 to Rs.61484 after buying this two stocks

Union Budget 2013-14 Highlights

The below given are key highlights of Union Budget 2013-2014 

Rs 14,000 crore capital infusion a positive for PSBs

Inflation indexed bonds to help increase penetration of debt markets

Hike in JNNURM allocation to benefit bus manufacturers

Hike in excise duty on phones above Rs 2000 a negative for telecom companies

Hike in import duty on STB to increase subscriber acquisition cost for MSO / DTH

PPP with Coal India Ltd. - a positive over long term

Focus on roads & housing positive for cement sector

Hike in JNNURM allocation to benefit bus manufacturers

MFs to have greater access to long term investors with ETFs & Debt MFs allowed as investments for PFs

Hike in incentive for housing loans below 25 lakhs - a positive for real estate and HFCs

MFs to have greater access to long term investors with ETFs & Debt MFs allowed as investments for PFs

Debt trading on stock exchanges to improve transparency and penetration of debt markets

Dewan Housing to benefit from additional deduction on interest towards first home loan

Low cost funding through IREDA a positive for renewable energy space

PMGSY II to be carved out - rural roads implementation to gather momentum

TUFS of Rs 1,50,000 crores in 12th plan - a positive for textile investment

Wind energy generation based incentive of Rs 800 crores is a positive for Renewable Energy sector


                               www.keralatraders.blogspot.in

Journey from Peanuts to Millions

        It’s been always told to us that money making is not easy. We also know it for a fact, that yes, it’s not. It takes a lot of hard work to become richer and for sustaining the Wealth created.

I would like to tell you about someone who actually made money easily, without even knowing much about what exactly was going on, but kept patience with discipline and got paid off.

It’s a story about a common man with an extra-ordinary investment experience.

Long time back in the year 1999 a small farmer who knew nothing about stock market himself and was a total layman and least bothered about any Stock Exchanges. But he had a friend who was involved in Equity Investment, in fact was a wise stock broker (rare species today).

One day the friend on a cup of tea advised him for investing into Equity for long term. The farmer being a novice and also not cash rich couldn’t understand that what he’s supposed to do?