Thursday, January 31, 2013

BUY CALL ON JET AIRWAYS DOUBLED


Dear followers,
I gave a buy call on Jet airways on October 8-2012 by seeing the possible stake sale to Eithad Airways.http://keralatraders.blogspot.in/2012/11/reason-for-jet-airways-out-performance.html
I gave a strong buy call on Jet airways at 350 levels.Now the Jet Airways is trading at 640 levels and it hit year high at 647 after my buy call.Hope you got profit

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Seeing Buying Opportunity in Selected Midcap Stocks

As midcap index plunged in this week trade I see some value buying picks in midcap space.They have either zero debt,good book value or good biz model.
Hexaware form IT space is such a worth buying midcap stock.They have zero debt on balance sheet and it is trading at Rs.75 now.It doesn't mean that stock will not go to 60 or 65 levels.Anyway this is a good midcap bet form IT space at this levels

Similarly I like to buy Jaicorp @ 70 and hold for another couple of years as co have started  Navi Mumbai Special Economic Zone to denotify SEZ land for IT park, township.
About 74% of NMSEZ is owned by Dronagiri Infrastructure Pvt Ltd ( DIPL), a company owned by RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani and Anand Jain of Jai corp and Sea King Infrastructure Ltd (SKIL), while the rest 26% is owned by CIDCO. 

         WILL COME WITH MORE INVESTMENT IDEAS IN COMING DAYS

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Dont Buy HDIL Now


I wont advise my clients to buy HDIL at 85 rate as promotoers are selling stakes in co.Only consider buying HDIL at 50-55 levels.Also HDIL have debt of Rs.4096 crores.So not looking to buy HDIL now

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Adding DCB in Trading Portfolio

Now I am adding 200 DCB in my trading portfolio at Rs.50.50 for Rs.10100.
Now the reserve fund in my portfolio is reduced to Rs.92034 and stocks I holding in trading portfolio are Bajaj Finserv,Strides Arcolab,Jai Corp and DCB
DCB is one of the better performing small banks given the opening up of acquisition of banking etc, there could be some increased interest in this bank. 


Development Credit Bank (DCB) reported a 72 per cent jump in net profit in the October-December quarter at Rs 27 crore, against Rs 17 crore in the year-ago period.
Net interest income (difference between interest earned and expended) grew by 22 per cent at Rs 72 crore from Rs 59 crore in Q3 FY12.
Net Interest Margin (NIM) stood at 3.38 per cent (3.37 per cent in Q3 FY12).
As on December 31, 2012, while the bank’s deposits grew by 22 per cent at Rs 7,558 crore, total advances rose 39 per cent at Rs 5,964 crore. Retail deposits were at 83 per cent of total deposits.
Net non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at 0.73 per cent from 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period.

Monday, January 14, 2013

Govt defers controversial GAAR norms to April 2016


The government will delay by two years implementation of controversial rules on tax avoidance to 2016, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Monday, a decision which earned a positive market reaction and is likely to help attract more capital inflows.
The General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR), aimed at companies and investors routing money through tax havens such as Mauritius, had been scheduled to be implemented from April 2014. They will now come into effect from April 1, 2016.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

10 reasons why Infosys shares are up 15%


  1. Infosys net profit at Rs.s.2,369 crore in the December quarter was flat against Rs.s.2,370 crore in the September quarter, but much better than the average estimate of Rs. 2,100 crore in a poll of 16 analysts, according to Thomson Reuters.
  2. Infosys said revenue rose 12 per cent in October-December to Rs.s.10,424 crore from Rs.s.9,300 crore a year earlier. That compares with analyst estimates of Rs.s.9,680 crore.
  3. Dollar revenues for the December quarter stood at $1.91 billion against $1.79 billion in the previous quarter and better than estimates of $1.87 billion.
  4. The biggest positive for the stock was the upward revision announced in the full year dollar sales forecast. Infosys said FY13 revenue forecast is seen at $7.45 billion, which is better than $7.34 billion projected by the management earlier. The new guidance implies 6.5 per cent growth year-on-year and includes Lodestone's revenues.
  5. Earnings per share for the full fiscal are likely to be Rs.s.162.80, a 10.4 per cent jump over the year ago period.
  6. Infosys maintained margins despite higher operating costs. EBIT or operating margins declined to 25.69 per cent against 26.3 per cent in the September quarter, but better than estimates of 25.5 per cent. Margins declined on account of wage hikes.
  7. Infosys managed to post 2 per cent sequential growth in volumes though the biggest surprise was the pick-up in pricing, which rose 3.7 per cent. Utilization rate rose to 70.1 per cent against 69.60 per cent.
  8. Management sounded optimistic: S. D. Shibulal, CEO and managing director of Infosys said the company has done well in this quarter despite an uncertain environment. "We continue to gain confidence from a strong pipeline of large deals. However, the broader economic environment remains difficult. Even so, we remain cautiously optimistic about the January-March quarter", he added.
  9. Analysts said the worst might be over for Infosys. "This is a very credible performance. Infosys has exceeded our estimates at the bottom line by 4-5 per cent and they have done this after 4-5 quarter... so, kudos to the management. The combine of a beat on actual Q3 numbers and upbeat guidance should reflect in our and most brokerage estimates going upwards," Saurabh Mukherjee of Ambit told NDTV Profit.
  10. Brokers were upbeat: Kotak said Infosys had reported an excellent quarter with organic growth beating expectations. Nomura said Q3 revenues were very impressive and organic growth guidance not being cut is positive. Citi said Infosys has showed a substantial beat in Q3.
    This information is taken from Ndtv profit site and I am posting it for my clients and followers

Why eClerx Is A Hot Buy?



About eClerx
eClerx provides an expert outsourcing option for managers of financial institutions who demand accuracy, regulatory compliance, and cost efficiency.
eClerx is known for its mastery of the processes, regulations, and infrastructure that are the backbone of today's global financial organizations. Look to eClerx as your Knowledge Process Outsourcing partner for trade support and validation, settlements and clearing, asset servicing, risk management and reconciliation, metrics and reporting, expense management, or special projects. With 150 Business Analysts and Project Managers, eClerx can help you analyze and streamline processes, as well as carry out full deployments from analysis to go-live.

 One among the largest third party KPO focused firms in India
 Engagements supported core to our client businesses and non-discretionary 
 Long term contracts (2-3 years) with recurring revenues
 Highly specialized services based on deep domain proficiency in target industries
 Dedicated in-house technology team builds proprietary workflow tools and 
platforms
 In-house training school with 2,500+ courses spanning specializations
 Cutting edge infrastructure and proven information security practices



CLIENT ADDITIONS ON TRACK

The company has seen revenue from its top five clients grow steadily from 2009; they now account for 80 per cent of its overall revenues. This indicates that the company has been able to mine its existing large-clients effectively.
INORGANIC EXPANSION
eClerx acquired Agilyst, an US-based KPO player, in April this year. In addition to helping it penetrate the US market, this acquisition gives the company more clients to work with.
Agilyst does business servicing of several US-based cable companies and is expected to deliver about $14 million in revenues for the current fiscal.
eClerx would thus be enabled to broad-base its clientele by getting into the US media industry.
ZERO DEBT COMPANY
eClerx is a zero debt company like infosys. In this high interest rate scenario this is very important and for further biz expansion co is capable of investing with its reserve cash.
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN
The promoters are holding 54.16% of stakes and Fii holds 20.31% stakes in eClerx.Management is pretty confident in co's future growth.General public holds only 9.99% in company.

 So I would like to add eClerx in my top buy list for SIP mode investments for another 5 years by  seeing more growth in future


Infosys Q3 beats estimates, net profit at Rs. 2,370 crore





IT major Infosys' third quarter profit for the October to December period was flat at Rs. 2,369 crore, but the numbers are better than estimates of Rs. 2,244 crore.

Sales rose 5.7 per cent to Rs. 10,424 crore from Rs. 9,858 crore in the previous quarter. On a year-on-year basis, sales jumped 12 per cent from Rs. 9,300 crore a year earlier. 


The biggest positive for the stock was the upward revision announced in the full year dollar sales forecast. Infosys said FY13 revenue forecast is seen at $7.45 billion, which is better than $7.34 billion projected by the management earlier.
Recently LIC raised their holdings in Infy to 7.24 from 4.92.
Ahead of this robust numbers and upward revision revenue guidance I expect Infy to cross 3000 mark in another 6 months.So I initiate a buy call on Infy with a delivery target of Rs.3000 in 3 months frame

LIC ups Infosys stake by over 2 pc; buys shares worth Rs 3,000 crore




State-run insurer LIC has hiked its stake in Infosys to 7.24 per cent, raising its holding in the IT major for third straight quarter with an estimated purchase of shares worth over Rs 3,000 crore.
LIC  which figures among the country's biggest institutional investors in stock market, held 4.92 per cent stake in Infosys at the beginning of the current fiscal on April 1, 2012, which has now risen to 7.24 per cent.

STAY INVESTED IN MARKET TROUGH SIP MODE

This is my findings from stock market and I am sharing it with my clients and followers
 1)FIIs pumped in a net $24 billion (Rs 127,480 crore) so far in 2012, the second highest investment in India since 1992, data shows.
2)Nifty pe  now trading at 18.89.
3)When nifty trading at ever time high of 6357 on 2008 nifty pe ratio was at 28.
Conclusion
As FII invested record level during 2012 I strongly believe they wont withdraw fund immediately.I think nifty is not expensive when compared to pe ratio earlier in 2008.Our market is attractive while compared to Nikkei,Shangai and other asian and emerging markets
With the positive reforms measures taken by Govt like Retail FDI,FDI in Aviation,Cut in subsidy burden and Rise in Petrol prices,lowering fiscal defecit of Indian economy and better macro economic condition in world economy and passing of fiscal cliff deal in USA,I expect nifty to hit new highs on better global economic conditions in coming months
My Advise
So I recommend my clients to continue investments and hold positions for more returns.But finding good stock for investments is obiviously a difficult task.I have researched and find out some good companies which are superior in fundamentals and having good biz models for long run.These companies are either having low debt,good top line and bottom line figure and potential multi-baggers in long run.So I advise clients to invest in these ten companies for next 5 years through SIP mode of minimum Rs.1000 per month for better returns.Select one company which is attractive levels out of this ten each month and invest every month

COMPANY NAMESECTORCMP52WEEK LOW/HIGHVALUATIONMKT CAP
ECLERXKPO SOFTWARE700571-910ATTRACTIVEMIDCAP
AVT NATURALFMCG3527-45ATTRACTIVESMALL CAP
IRB INFRACONSTRUCTION130100-210ATTRACTIVEMIDCAP
GREAVES COTTONAUTO ENGINES8460-94ATTRACTIVEMIDCAP
SIBBANKING2820-30ATTRACTIVEMIDCAP
TVS MOTORSAUTOS4831-55ATTRACTIVEMIDCAP
DISHMANPHARMA11641-125FAIRSMALL CAP
OBEROI REALTYREALTY285205-323FAIRMIDCAP
VGUARDHOME APPLIANCE509161-547EXPENSIVEMIDCAP
LTFHNBFC9040-97EXPENSIVELARGE CAP

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Adding JaiCorp in Model Portfolio

Now I am adding Jaicorp in my model portfolio with a weightage of 10% @ 85 rate 117 shares
for a value of Rs.9945 and reserve fund in portfolio is reduced to Rs.102134

Maharashtra cabinet cleared the new industrial policy, which allows special economic zone (SEZ) developers to utilize 40% of the land in their possession as an integrated industrial township project.

If you go by the business model of the company and if I take the networth of Rs 2,400-2,500 crore of the company, more than Rs 1,500-1,600 crore has been invested in the real estate. They have interest in Navi Mumbai SEZ, Maha Mumbai SEZ, Rewas port and many real estate companies. It is very difficult to ascertain what kind of interest or percentage of holdings they have. It is quite substantial.

The major chunk of both these SEZ’s ownership are with Mukesh Ambani in his personal capacity but some portion of them, the beneficial ownership or the ownership of these two SEZs are also held by this company. Now there are talks that some of the monetisations of the company’s interest in these SEZs as well as in the other real estate projects in which interest of Mukesh Ambani lies, will get monetized for which the company may get a huge amount - as against the marketcap of Rs 1,500 crore, people have been talking of Rs 2,000-2,500 crore.

Due to this newsflow and the huge real estate investments, company should be termed as a real estate company only. Three-four years back when they made a preferential allotment, then the frenzy for real estate stocks was there, the marketcap of the company moved more than Rs 20,000 crore, while now the marketcap is close to Rs 1,500 crore. It is a debt-free company with a networth of close to Rs 2,500 crore.



Monday, January 7, 2013

Booking Profit in JPinfra in Model Portfolio

Now I am booking profit in JP infra @ 55.50 in my model portfolio.I have 208 shares at 48.So there will be only Bajaj Finserv and Strides Arcolab left in portfolio.
Now total cash holdings in portfolio will be around Rs.112079

SCRIPBUY RATEQTYSECTORCMPGAIN/LOSSS% CHANGEVALUE
STRIDES ARCO8006PHARMA10801680356480
BAJAJ FINSERV8906FINANCIAL SERV91816825508
CASH BALANCE      112079

Sunday, January 6, 2013

BYE BYE TO 2012 PORTFOLIO


Here is the closing rate of my 2012 portfolio on Dec 31 .........I invested Rs.1 lakh in 2012 and its value is now Rs.276000


SCRIP BUY RATEBUY QTY% HOLDINGSECTORTOTAL BUY VALUECMPCURRENT VALUEPROFIT
DEN NETWORK4062525MEDIA ENTERTAINMENT2500020512812593750
HATHWAY CABLES11018220MEDIA ENTERTAINMENT200003035514630414
VGUARD2408420CABLE AND WIRING201605404536025360
MARICO1705910FMCG10030224132163068
FINANTIAL TECH58095IT5220108297384455
APOLLO HOSP55095HEALTH CARE495081773532385
ECLERX66075IT46207185026420
DABUR 110455FMCG49501305850900
SOUTH IND BANK222285BANKING50102761561146
100000275970175970

2013 BETS FOR MY FOLLOWERS

I am happy to share my 2013 portfolio bets for my followers and clients for free of cost.

SCRIP NAMECMPSECTORLOGICWEIGHTAGE
STERLITE TECH31OPTICAL FIBRE AND CABLE20000 CRORE NATIONAL OPTICAL FIBRE NETWORK25
STER TECH WILL BE KEY BENEFITIARY
FINOLEX62POWER CABLE PVC PIPESHIGH GROWTH RATE EXPECTED IN CABLE,POWER AND MEDIA20
INDUSTRY IN COMING YEARS
SIB27BANKINGLOW NPA OF .19%.VERY LEAST IN BANKING INDUSTRY10
HUGE EXPANSION PLANS IN CARDS FOR BANK
DISHMAN PHARMA115PHARMAATTRACTIVE VALUATION OF PE RATIO 7.FIIS STARTED 10
ACCUMULATING DISHMAN PHARMA
TATA STEEL410METALEUROPEAN OPS RESTRUCTURING.IMPROVED DEMAND FROM CHINA10
SPECIALITY RESTAURANT175FOOD CHAINCONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPENDING EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER 5
INTEREST RATE SLOWDOWN
ECLERX700ITFUNDAMNETALLY STRONG,EXPECTING BETTER MARGINS IN 20135
HCL INFOSYS38SOFTWARE AND ITATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS,WILL BE BENEFITTED FROM UIDAI PRJ 5
IVRCL INFRA44CONSTRUCTIONGOVT KEY FOCUS ON INFRASTRUCTURE IN FYP5
IRB INFRA130INFRASTRUCTUREATTRACTIVE VALUATION,HUGE ORDER BOOK FROM NHAI5
I selected 10 companies from various sectors like cable,metal.banking,IT,pharma, construction,food and beverage etc.Given maximum weightage of 45% to cable and power wire manufactures like Ster technology and Finolex.As this portfolio is meant for 2013 full year I am not mentioning any target.Requested to continue holding for 2013 full year As 2013 Rbi will cut key interest rates it will be good for markets and beneficial for infra and construction companies like IRB and IVRCL