Sunday, March 24, 2013

Sell Call on HDIL Saved My Clients

Hope all my clients kept miles away form HDIL......In my earlier research report advised not to buy HDIL at 80 levels as there is more downside seen in HDIL.They have huge debt of Rs.4080 crore in co balance sheet.

See now what happened to HDIL.
Its trading @ 45.
Whooping 50% discount for India's second largest Realty player,Can u believe it???????

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Manappuram Finance: Why the stock is down 31% in 2 days

Manappuram Finance opened higher on Thursday, rising as much as 8 per cent, before slipping in to the red. The stock has fallen 31 per cent over the last two sessions. Manappuram Finance shares were down 1 per cent to Rs. 23.70 as of 10 a.m. on the National Stock Exchange. Muthoot Finance, another gold finance firm, traded 2.5 per cent higher at Rs.179.40 after falling over 10 per cent in the last two sessions.

Gold prices are falling: According to Reserve Bank of India regulation, gold loan companies can lend up to 60 per cent of the value of jewellery.Manappuram offers loans at 75 per cent of the scrap value of jewellery. At 24 per cent per annum interest, the principal and accrued interest will become 93 per cent of the value of jewellery in one year's time. This scenario leads to an incentive for borrowers to default. So, companies are forced to reverse interest income to prevent defaults.

Profit hit: Manappuram Finance revised its January - March guidance from a profit of Rs. 90 crore to a loss of Rs. 50 crore due to interest reversals of Rs. 250 crore. According to Espirito Santo Securities, Manappuram management explained that this has occurred on Rs. 1,500 crore of loans which were disbursed between September 2011 and January 2012 and expected accrued interest of Rs. 500 crore up to March 2013. The management said that there may be further losses if the gold price declines from current levels.

Risk management practices: There is a perception that the gold loan business is secure as the underlying asset is highly liquid and the borrower has emotional attachment to the asset. However, the recent episode highlights that slippages are very high (15 per cent of September-December 2011 disbursements turning bad) and even in a stable gold price scenario the company may incur losses, Espirito Santo says.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch downgraded Manappuram Finance to "underperform" from "buy", and reduced its target price to Rs. 20 from Rs. 48, citing higher-than-expected under recoveries.

Corporate governance issues:  Espirito Santo says Manappuram management had selectively disclosed the revision in the quantum of interest reversals before making it public. This is the second instance of miscommunication with investors. Management committed similar mistakes during Q3 FY13 results. We downgrade our corporate governance rating to Red from Amber, the brokerage added.

                                   This report is taken form NDTV Profit website

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps, says room for further easing limited

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday cut its key lending rate by 25 basis points (bps) in an attempt to prop up growth in the slowing economy, drawing comfort from inflation based on the wholesale price index staying under 7%, but warned that room for further monetary easing was limited.
The apex bank kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) unchanged in its mid-quarter monetary policy.
The rupee weakened and the BSE’s benchmark Sensex fell on RBI’s warning.
Noting that risks on account of the current account deficit (CAD) remain significant, despite a likely improvement in the fourth quarter, RBI said, “Accordingly, even as the policy stance emphasises addressing the growth risks, the headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited.”

DMK withdraws support from UPA coalition

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a key regional ally, pulled out of India’s ruling coalition on Tuesday in protest against the government’s position on a US-backed United Nations resolution on war crimes carried out during Sri Lanka’s civil war.
The DMK is based in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, and has often pressured the Indian government to do more to protect Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil population.
The DMK has 18 seats in the lower of house of Parliament as part of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s coalition, which already rules in a minority. Singh’s Congress party can continue to govern with parliamentary support from two other regional parties.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013


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Monday, March 11, 2013

Big bull Jhunjhunwala losing his magic touch

Is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, India’s most followed stock investor, losing his magic touch? It seems so going by the performance of some of his most recent investments. Jhunjhunwala’s recent market bets from Pipavav Defense and Offshore Engineering (earlier Pipavav Shipyard) to DB Realty, Sterling Holidays and Resorts to A2Z Maintenance (bought from the secondary market immediately after IPO) are either quoting lower or at similar levels since he invested in them about two years ago, an analysis by Financial Chronicle revealed.Jhunjhunwala, popular in market circles as ‘Warren Buffet of India’ for his long-term investment approach, may still have the last laugh after a few years if the stocks zoom as in the case of his other famous investments such as Titan, Crisil, Geojit and others, said stockbrokers.However, for now, RJ’s reputation built over the years is under a serious threat.DB Realty, where he bought 12.50 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 90.21 apiece in October last year, is now trading at Rs 79.75, causing Jhunjhunwala Rs 1.3 crore loss as of Monday. 

Similarly, the big bull is nursing his wounds in Pipavav Defense and Offshore Engineering, owned by SKIL Infrastructure, in which he invested in September 2011. The Rs 81.90 crore investment in Pipavav Defense and Offshore Engineering was made in convertible shares issued at that time for Rs 78 apiece. The conversion, due in 18 months, falls in the coming weeks.

Shares of Pipavav Defense and Offshore closed at Rs 67.10 apiece on Monday, a loss of nearly Rs 11 a share for the billionaire, who was ranked #46 richest Indian by Forbes.Similarly, Jhunjhunwala’s move to garner investor faith by buying over 16 lakh shares in A2Z Maintenance, a company he backed, on the day of the company’s listing on the stock exchanges has backfired. Though the exact price he paid to buy these shares is not known, the stock closed at Rs 333 apiece on the listing day compared with the IPO price of Rs 400.The share hit a new low of Rs 26.40 on Monday, wiping off at least Rs 50 crore from his secondary market investment. 

An email sent to Jhunjhunwala and Utpal Sheth, CEO of Rare Enterprises, the investment firm founded by the former, elicited no response.Vijay Kedia, director of Kedia Securities, who himself models his investments on Jhunjhunwala, says the ups and downs are part and parcel of the market. “We need to understand that the market is supreme,” he said, but added that “Jhunjhunwala is Jhunjhunwala. He is not running a 100-metre or 400-metre race. He is in a marathon. He’ll stay invested for five years or 10 years.”Kedia felt the recent crash in mid-cap stocks dented investor confidence and this may have impacted Jhunjhunwala-owned stocks as well. Perhaps, only the saving grace is that Jhunjhunwala’s investment in Sterling Holidays and Resorts, where he invested at Rs 75 a share in September 2011, has gone up by a paltry Rs 5, or over 6 per cent, over the past 18 months. The stock is trading at Rs 80 a share. The letdown for investors in A2Z Maintenance, which went public in December 2010 showing Jhunjhunwala’s backing as he continued to hold nearly 20 per cent, has forced the postponement of IPOs of several other firms that he backed.During the road shows for A2Z Maintenance, the 52-year-old investor promised that at least six companies that he backed would be listed in the coming years. Some of the unlisted firms that he has invested in include Topsgroup, John Energy, Hungama Digital and Concord Biotech.
                 This article is taken from My express my sincere thanks to this reporter  Rajesh Abraham

Sunday, March 10, 2013



Friday, March 8, 2013


 Shares in Jet AirwaysBSE 9.93 %extended gains to more than 13 per cent on Friday, after a news channel reported that Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways may buy a 10-12 per cent stake in the company directly from promoters. 

Etihad may pay as much as Rs 750 ($13.75) a share for the stake, the report said. 

Etihad has been in talks with Jet to buy a 24 per cent stake, government sources said. 

The channel said Etihad may buy the remaining stake by issuing preferential shares. 

I already posted today morning about possible oppen offer by Ehihad for Jet Airways




This is my personnel view on Jet Airways



Quiz Damaka For My followers and Win Exciting Prices

This is a simple quiz program conducted once in a week.I will ask a question related to stock market on every Friday.
Terms and conditions
1)You can post the answer on blogger comments section only.
2)Last date for posting answer will be Sunday midnight 11.59 am.There after nothing will be entertained 
3)If there are more right answers winner will be decided through lot system.
4)One participant should post only one answer

Here is the question of the week.Go and shoot it and win fabulous prices
I Founded a real hidden gem in Indian IT space....The clues for the company are follows
1)This company remains best play among the mid-sized Indian IT sector
2)This company is fully debt free
3)Have cash surplus of Rs.1.8 billion(Rs.43 per share)
4)Its now trading in between Rs.100 and 110 levels...
I hope this clues are enough for getting right answer.So start posting right answers in comments section

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Target Met in Infosys(20% profit)

I am happy to announce that my target on Infosys met today on trading hours.I gave a fresh buy call on Infosys at  Rs.2500 just before companies Q3 results.For details of buy recommendation click here.
I am again posting my ten reasons for Infosys share buy

  1. Infosys net profit at Rs.s.2,369 crore in the December quarter was flat against Rs.s.2,370 crore in the September quarter, but much better than the average estimate of Rs. 2,100 crore in a poll of 16 analysts, according to Thomson Reuters.
  2. Infosys said revenue rose 12 per cent in October-December to Rs.s.10,424 crore from Rs.s.9,300 crore a year earlier. That compares with analyst estimates of Rs.s.9,680 crore.
  3. Dollar revenues for the December quarter stood at $1.91 billion against $1.79 billion in the previous quarter and better than estimates of $1.87 billion.
  4. The biggest positive for the stock was the upward revision announced in the full year dollar sales forecast. Infosys said FY13 revenue forecast is seen at $7.45 billion, which is better than $7.34 billion projected by the management earlier. The new guidance implies 6.5 per cent growth year-on-year and includes Lodestone's revenues.
  5. Earnings per share for the full fiscal are likely to be Rs.s.162.80, a 10.4 per cent jump over the year ago period.
  6. Infosys maintained margins despite higher operating costs. EBIT or operating margins declined to 25.69 per cent against 26.3 per cent in the September quarter, but better than estimates of 25.5 per cent. Margins declined on account of wage hikes.
  7. Infosys managed to post 2 per cent sequential growth in volumes though the biggest surprise was the pick-up in pricing, which rose 3.7 per cent. Utilization rate rose to 70.1 per cent against 69.60 per cent.
  8. Management sounded optimistic: S. D. Shibulal, CEO and managing director of Infosys said the company has done well in this quarter despite an uncertain environment. "We continue to gain confidence from a strong pipeline of large deals. However, the broader economic environment remains difficult. Even so, we remain cautiously optimistic about the January-March quarter", he added.
  9. Analysts said the worst might be over for Infosys. "This is a very credible performance. Infosys has exceeded our estimates at the bottom line by 4-5 per cent and they have done this after 4-5 quarter... so, kudos to the management. The combine of a beat on actual Q3 numbers and upbeat guidance should reflect in our and most brokerage estimates going upwards," Saurabh Mukherjee of Ambit told NDTV Profit.
  10. Brokers were upbeat: Kotak said Infosys had reported an excellent quarter with organic growth beating expectations. Nomura said Q3 revenues were very impressive and organic growth guidance not being cut is positive. Citi said Infosys has showed a substantial beat in Q3.

Now on 7 march Infosys is trading at Rs.3002 levels which means 20% upside form my buy call on January 10th report.Now I wish to book profit in Infoys at this levels.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Holdings in Trading Portfolio

Here is my latest portfolio holdings and snapshot of my trading portfolio.I initially started portfolio with Rs.100000 on Aug 2012 and now fund size is around 1.2 lakh.Now I am holding aprox 61000 worth stocks and 61484 as cash surplus in portfolio.I have generated 20% returns so far since

STRIDES ARCO8006PHARMA905630356480
JAI CORP85117REALTY60-2925-299945
TATA GLOBAL13080FMCG1332402.310640

Monday, March 4, 2013

Why NHPC tanked 25%?

NHPC stock fell as much as 25.8% on Monday before recovering marginally. This followed a 10.5% decline on Friday and prompted the management to issue a clarification. “As far as the fundamentals of the company, there is no change which affects the major price movement,” the company said in a stock exchange filing. “In our opinion, there is no issue in the Finance Bill, which has any adverse effect on (the) hydro sector.”
Dealers said the fall in the stock was due to some margin calls being triggered, which had a domino effect. While the budget may not have had an impact, the company’s fundamentals remain weak, though that doesn’t warrant such a steep decline in its stock price.
After listing at Rs.36 a share in 2009, NHPC exceeded that price only once—on 6 January 2010. The main problem dogging the company has been a delay in executing projects. It added no capacity at all in FY10, just 120 megawatts (MW) in FY11 and none at all in FY12. If one went by the projections given in its red herring prospectus, NHPC should have added 3,941MW of capacity by now.
So far this fiscal year, the company has added 275MW of capacity. An investor presentation on its website said it expects to add another 417MW of capacity in this fiscal year and another 680 MW in the next.
However, after that, expect another lull in commissioning for 18 months before capacity additions start in FY17. NHPC has so far spent Rs.19,000 crore on these projects which are at varying levels of completion.Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd said in a report that, “20% book (is) invested in projects that are stuck or facing problems.” In other words, it will take a long time for these projects to be added to NHPC’s gross block and start earning.
The recent capacity additions have also meant that NHPC has reported a rise in generation. But then it has also been facing other problems. Capital costs for the company have increased and the tariff for new projects such as Chutak in Jammu and Kashmir is estimated at Rs.8 per unit, far higher than the average electricity rates around the country.
NHPC is also seeing receivables piling up, another threat to earnings. According to Emkay, total receivables at the end of December 2012 stand at Rs.1,999 crore, about one-third of its FY12 sales. Of this, receivables which are more than 60 days old constitute Rs.1,258 crore.
While these limit the upside for the stock, note that NHPC now trades at 0.77 times estimated book value for FY14, much below the consensus 1.1 times call by brokerages.
So I would like to Given fresh buy call on NHPC at this fair valuation.But kindly note that this stock is not suitable for short term traders.Only longterm investors with 2 year holding period can accumulate stock
                   I express my sincere thanks to Livemint website for this article

Adding Tata Global Beverages and Cairn India in Trading Portfolio

After a 300 points correction in Nifty last month there are lots of buying opportunity in the market as of now.But the important question is the stock selection. Obviously stock selection is very difficult task in this current market scenario.So I am adding low beta and fundamentally strong stocks at this point of time.I also request my clients and followers to add only quality fundamentally strong stock and least debt companies only in portfolio.Dont buy stocks who have large debt and whose promoters stakes are pledged.

Now I would like to add two fundamentally strong companies namely Tata Global Beverages and Cairn India in my trading portfolio. Cairn India is Indias second largest refining company after Reliance industry.Recently Vedanta group bought acquired Cairn India.Now Cairn India is trading at Rs.290.Its 52 week low is at 285.So I am buying 35 shares at 290(35*290=10150) levels for a target of 330.

Secondly I would like to buy Tata Global at Rs.130 levels for a target of 160 plus.I am buying 80 shares of TGBL for Rs.10400 in trading portfolio.

Kindly note that I choosen these stocks so that I can hold these companies for another six month minimum
My cash reserve in trading portfolio is reduced from Rs.82034 to Rs.61484 after buying this two stocks